When You Think About It: Inside The Iowa Caucus

After weeks of mind-blowing hyperbole, the Iowa Caucus has finally arrived! And don't know if you feel the same as me, but if I hear one more political pundit extol the virtues of Iowa's cute and anachronistic method of vetting candidates, I think that I'll simply puke!! Not only have we been barraged by an endless stream of analysis of the candidates and the process, it's mostly, simply put, a bunch of hooey!

I've spent weeks here preparing for, and covering this process. I did the same thing 4 years ago and I feel the same way now as I did then. It is indeed unique, but what is the process's greatest strength is, at the same time, it's greatest weakness. Here are some numbers that will illustrate my point: The total population of the Iowa is just over 3 million or about 1/4 of the population of the NY Metropolitan area. The ethnic make-up of those people is overwhelmingly white (about 86%). The main industry of the state is agriculture (think endless fields of corn and soy beans). Of those eligible to participate in the caucuses, about 116, 000 actually will. That's about 6% of the total who might should they so choose to so.

Now, in fairness, that incredibly small number of people, spread out over a half dozen candidates who have been barnstorming the state for weeks, allows for a more personal brand of politicking than would not be possible in larger states. Candidates have met in churches, barns, social clubs, VFW meeting halls, and other intimate settings, often involving small groups of people having direct contact with them. This allows for a very appealing, direct, and often, personal, contact with those whom desire your vote. In a perfect world, that's the way to go. But it's not a perfect world, it's Iowa!

And, what's wrong with that, you might ask. Well, as I said in my second paragraph, what is its strength, when looked at from another perspective, is also its greatest weakness. This small sampling of over 310,000 million Americans makes it statistically insignificant. In fact, when you think about the number of Iowans actually participating (116,000), that number becomes far less than the margin of error used in most statistical analyses! Hell, there seems to be more journalists and TV personnel here then there are constituents! Add to this the ethnic make-up of the state (86% white), the importance of the Iowa Caucus is rendered insignificant. When you think about it, how could, or should, this process be a harbinger of how these candidates will fair in the rest of the REAL world, i.e. America?

In comparison to the rest of the country, this is the Land of Oz. Iowans live mostly in a vacuum, evidenced, at least by me, by their startling lack of diversity. I don't knock them for what they are and how they think, but we seem to have so little in common. They don't look like me, they don't sound like me, and, from what I've witnessed, they don't think like me. So, when you think about it, why should we attach more importance than it deserves.

Well, the BIG SHOW begins tonight and it will soon be over. Then, we can listen to the hype about New Hampshire.